Location: Fordham Law School Building, Skadden Conference Center, 150 W 62nd Street, New York, NY 10023
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Thursday, May 5 • 11:15am - 11:35am
Pointing the way forward: Trend influences on consumer demand

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With the rise of big data, information on historical demand is at the consumers’ fingertips (e.g., via Google Trends). We examine how the availability of such demand curves impacts individual and aggregate consumer behavior. We argue that historical sales patterns incite consumers to draw inferences about future demand in terms of trajectory and uncertainty. This is important for companies interested in anticipating future developments or managing demand. In three experiments, we show that historical information on sales trends (a) impacts individual consumer decisions above and beyond the effect of cumulative sales, (b) increases market concentration as compared to the absence of sales information, and (c) can lead to a lower market concentration than sales information without historical trends. Specifically, information on positive global and short-term trends increases future sales much more than simply providing cumulative sales information (e.g., on the number of previous downloads). Observed prior adoption velocity and variation however decrease future sales by alerting consumers to the potential uncertainty of future developments.

avatar for Michel Clement

Michel Clement

University of Hamburg
Michel Clement is Professor for Marketing and Media at the Institute for Marketing, Hamburg Business School, University of Hamburg, Germany. He is also director of the Research Center for Media and Communication at the University of Hamburg. Professor Clement holds a doctoral degree... Read More →

Nadja Grabenströer

University of Hamburg

Mark Heitmann

University of Hamburg

Olaf Maecker

University of Hamburg

avatar for John Carey

John Carey

Fordham University
John Carey is Professor of Communication and Media Management at Fordham University's Gabelli School of Business and Director of Fordham's MS in Media Management.  He has more than 25 years experience in conducting research about new media and consumer behavior.  Recently, he has... Read More →

Thursday May 5, 2016 11:15am - 11:35am EDT
Room Bateman Law School
  Audiences & Consumption & Measurement
  • Manuscript # 1106
  • Session # A15

Attendees (8)