Location: Fordham Law School Building, Skadden Conference Center, 150 W 62nd Street, New York, NY 10023
Wednesday, May 4 • 1:50pm - 2:10pm
Sales Estimations in the Book Industry – Applying Market Response Models in the Children’s Book Market

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Estimating the demand of books is an important management task for publishing companies due to (1) the high set-up costs of printing and (2) potential excess inventory costs. In addition, in countries with fixed book prices laws (e.g., Germany) management options to steer the demand of books over time are limited, thus underlining the relevance of forecasts. This study demonstrates that relatively simple quantitative models can effectively support managers in predicting sales in the category of children’s and young adult literature books. Based on a sample of 542 children’s and young adult literature books sold in Germany, we identify relevant drivers for sales using market response models. We find that model based results consistently outperformed management predictions by a large German publishing company on a holdout sample. Publishing companies could easily adopt the model developed in this study in order to supplement or replace current prediction heuristics used by management, thereby reducing risks of uncertainty for business planning.

avatar for Michel Clement

Michel Clement

University of Hamburg
Michel Clement is Professor for Marketing and Media at the Institute for Marketing, Hamburg Business School, University of Hamburg, Germany. He is also director of the Research Center for Media and Communication at the University of Hamburg. Professor Clement holds a doctoral degree... Read More →
avatar for Cord Otten

Cord Otten

Kühne Logistics University
Cord Otten is a doctoral student jointly supervised by Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Sönke Albers (Kühne Logistics University) and Prof. Dr. Michel Clement (University of Hamburg). His work is embedded in a German Research Foundation (DFG) project about the marketing of hedonic media products... Read More →
avatar for Dominik Stehr

Dominik Stehr

University of Hamburg
Dominik Stehr is a master student in business administration with a focus on marketing and corporate management at the University of Hamburg. He works also as an academic assistant for Michel Clement at the Institute for Marketing, University of Hamburg.

avatar for Gillian Doyle

Gillian Doyle

University of Glasgow
Gillian Doyle is Professor of Media Economics and Director of the Centre for Cultural Policy Research (CCPR) at the University of Glasgow where she directs Glasgow’s MSc in Media Management.   A member of the European Expert Network on Culture and Audiovisual (EENCA), she has... Read More →

Wednesday May 4, 2016 1:50pm - 2:10pm EDT
Costantino A Law School
  Media Discoverability
  • Manuscript # 1105
  • Session # B22

Attendees (7)